Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 1.265728 1.333953 1.404745 1.483855 1.569997 1.661181 1.765297
2025-12-14 1.139113 1.232549 1.333545 1.451443 1.586085 1.736013 1.916942
2025-12-21 1.067896 1.176306 1.296823 1.441897 1.613386 1.811686 2.061406
2025-12-28 1.026658 1.147639 1.285304 1.455395 1.662543 1.910224 2.234470
2026-01-04 0.979909 1.108087 1.256655 1.444095 1.678006 1.965590 2.354755
2026-01-11 0.953216 1.089730 1.250762 1.458074 1.723041 2.058004 2.526877
2026-01-18 0.924114 1.066315 1.236595 1.459684 1.750875 2.128271 2.673120
2026-01-25 0.909695 1.059635 1.241964 1.485206 1.809787 2.241780 2.886810
2026-02-01 0.873076 1.023506 1.208354 1.458047 1.796391 2.255226 2.957130
2026-02-08 0.834310 0.983088 1.167452 1.419019 1.764209 2.239642 2.981864
2026-02-15 0.809826 0.959809 1.147457 1.406491 1.767130 2.272930 3.081831
2026-02-22 0.792721 0.945240 1.137981 1.407306 1.788105 2.332690 3.226850
2026-03-01 0.767673 0.920299 1.114902 1.389819 1.783990 2.357851 3.323464
2026-03-08 0.739322 0.890223 1.084041 1.360340 1.761141 2.353508 3.371397
2026-03-15 0.720779 0.872366 1.068745 1.351696 1.767871 2.394181 3.498256
2026-03-22 0.711168 0.865922 1.068431 1.363919 1.805782 2.485438 3.721846
2026-03-29 0.694128 0.848940 1.053046 1.353687 1.808901 2.520875 3.848148
2026-04-05 0.686076 0.843750 1.053581 1.366345 1.847474 2.616286 4.096096
2026-04-12 0.674688 0.833624 1.046810 1.367802 1.868355 2.683259 4.296907
2026-04-19 0.671029 0.833896 1.054506 1.390896 1.924545 2.814287 4.642553
2026-04-26 0.652280 0.812800 1.031239 1.366321 1.902283 2.806255 4.697933
2026-05-03 0.630942 0.787637 1.001530 1.330964 1.860818 2.761506 4.669974
2026-05-10 0.617990 0.773879 0.987810 1.319604 1.858419 2.786964 4.798374